In the midst of what appears to be a unique Q2 earnings season, with strong results and unimpressive guidance (especially for the technology sector), along with increased fears surrounding the Delta Covid variant, we are further reminded of the differences between the markets and the economy. Rewind to the start of 2020: most were worried the market was approaching the later stages of a growth cycle. The S&P 500 is up 39.6% in 19 months since the beginning of 2020. Covid aside, we have immense stimulus added to the economic system; 40% of all dollars in circulation were printed since Covid. Maybe the 40% S&P 500 run makes sense? Innovation curve adoptions and advancements in how and where life and work, that will not fully retrace in an opened, closed, or transitory economy, should be conducted. It is quite possible our economy is most efficient with all of us sitting at home using disposable income on investments and goods instead of services, ironically. The long-lasting productivity gains that will continue to exist in a future, fully reopened world are a front and center question that will determine if we are in the midst of a new growth cycle, or on fumes building in the economy pre-Covid. Ironically, our answer is both. In our last commentary, we wrote that the S&P 500 could end the year anywhere between up 30% and down 70%. Unfortunately, the potential outcomes, given all of the variables, are just as wide. Innovation in many fields is real, and will continue on a rampant pace. Independently of that, there will be numerous economic shocks along the way, with the first potentially around the corner, given the never-ending rewritten US debt ceiling talks.
