Evolving Expectations
After experiencing the oddity of a booming stock market in the midst of the crippled 2020 economy, many are experiencing the other side of that coin for the first time. Despite a negative -1.5% GDP print for Q1, we currently have a moderately growing economy and somewhat treacherous markets. The 60/40 has seemingly failed as correlations between stocks and bonds have risen in the face of inflation. US investors are feeling the effects of inflation like many of our counterparts in emerging markets have lived and breathed time and time again. The Fed put became widely accepted by all, transitioning to a new form of Fed mandate following Modern Monetary Theory. From there, the Fed has started playing catchup attempting to tame inflation and regain credibility.
The wealth effect caused by the Covid response was disproportionately felt by baby boomers and those with assets, while the millennials and gen-xers were left to create their own concepts of wealth and social norms, whether that be in normal or augmented reality. We’ve mentioned in the last few commentaries that the echo chamber effect of social media has emboldened the masses within their specific perspective. Geopolitical conflicts between Russia and Ukraine have caused the world to choose sides: everything from what currency commodities settle in to sanctions on individuals. Real Estate in the UAE is booming as the place to be for Russian oligarchs looking for a new home
